Introduction
As many tennis fans may already know, the ATP tour is currently experiencing an unprecedented era of dominance from its top players. They -- Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, and Andy Murray -- have collectively occupied the top four spots for nearly all of the last 3 1/2 years, thus earning them the appellation "the Big 4". In fact, since the beginning of 2009, only two other players (Juan Martin del Potro and Robin Soderling) have managed to break into the top four, and have spent a total of 17 weeks there!
There are many ways to compare tennis players, both by on-court performances:
- won/loss record
- first serve percentage
- winners vs. unforced errors
- on-court time per match
and off-court characteristics:
- height
- weight
- nationality
- age
However, in this article, we'll look into some of the stats behind the performances of these players in tournament finals. Why? Because the data is easy available on Wikipedia!
Trends: expected, surprising
If you've paid much attention to tennis for the past few years, you'll probably know that Nadal has been one of the best ever on clay, while Federer has been equally as good on grass. You'll probably also know that Djokovic had one of the greatest seasons ever last year, and that Murray hasn't yet won a grand slam title.
But maybe you don't know how well each of the Big 4 performs indoors vs. outdoors, or how well they perform in various continents. And how about their toughest opponents (outside of the Big 4) or opponent's country? We'll see that and more in the next section!
Data analysis
Let's start by looking at the performances by continent. (Remember that we're only looking at finals). Here's the data:
+----------------+---------------+------+--------+-------+------------+ | player name | continent | wins | losses | total | percentage | +----------------+---------------+------+--------+-------+------------+ | Andy Murray | Oceania | 1 | 2 | 3 | 33 | | Andy Murray | Middle East | 2 | 2 | 4 | 50 | | Andy Murray | Asia | 4 | 1 | 5 | 80 | | Andy Murray | Europe | 8 | 1 | 9 | 89 | | Andy Murray | North America | 7 | 4 | 11 | 64 | | Novak Djokovic | Middle East | 3 | 0 | 3 | 100 | | Novak Djokovic | Asia | 3 | 1 | 4 | 75 | | Novak Djokovic | Oceania | 4 | 0 | 4 | 100 | | Novak Djokovic | North America | 7 | 7 | 14 | 50 | | Novak Djokovic | Europe | 12 | 6 | 18 | 67 | | Rafael Nadal | South America | 1 | 0 | 1 | 100 | | Rafael Nadal | Middle East | 1 | 1 | 2 | 50 | | Rafael Nadal | Oceania | 1 | 2 | 3 | 33 | | Rafael Nadal | Asia | 3 | 3 | 6 | 50 | | Rafael Nadal | North America | 6 | 5 | 11 | 55 | | Rafael Nadal | Europe | 34 | 10 | 44 | 77 | | Roger Federer | Oceania | 5 | 1 | 6 | 83 | | Roger Federer | Asia | 5 | 2 | 7 | 71 | | Roger Federer | Middle East | 8 | 2 | 10 | 80 | | Roger Federer | North America | 18 | 4 | 22 | 82 | | Roger Federer | Europe | 36 | 21 | 57 | 63 | +----------------+---------------+------+--------+-------+------------+
Here are some of the interesting things that I noticed:
- while Federer and Nadal have played far more finals in Europe than in any other continent, Djokovic has hardly played more in Europe than in North America, and Murray has actually played more in North America. Part of this could be due to Murray's historic difficulties on clay (as we'll see later) -- he's never played in a clay-court final, and Europe's lineup is quite heavy in clay-court tournaments.
- Nadal has played in 11 North American finals and won 6 of those -- perhaps disproving the notion that he is a clay-court specialist. In fact, he's won the US Open, Indian Wells twice, and the Canadian Masters twice (once each in Montreal in Toronto) -- all of which are hard court tournaments.
- Federer's win percentage in North America is much higher than in Europe: 82% vs 63%. A big part of that difference can be explained by the fact that he's 5-11 against Nadal in European finals.
- Nadal is the only one of the Big 4 to contest a final in South America.
- both Federer and Nadal have contested more European finals (57 and 44) than the total number of finals contested by Djokovic or Murray (43 and 32).
Next up, let's look at performance against court surface. Again, here's the data:
+----------------+---------+------+--------+-------+------------+ | player name | surface | wins | losses | total | percentage | +----------------+---------+------+--------+-------+------------+ | Andy Murray | carpet | 1 | 0 | 1 | 100 | | Andy Murray | grass | 2 | 0 | 2 | 100 | | Andy Murray | hard | 19 | 10 | 29 | 66 | | Novak Djokovic | clay | 7 | 3 | 10 | 70 | | Novak Djokovic | grass | 1 | 2 | 3 | 33 | | Novak Djokovic | hard | 21 | 9 | 30 | 70 | | Rafael Nadal | clay | 32 | 4 | 36 | 89 | | Rafael Nadal | grass | 3 | 3 | 6 | 50 | | Rafael Nadal | hard | 11 | 14 | 25 | 44 | | Roger Federer | carpet | 2 | 5 | 7 | 29 | | Roger Federer | clay | 9 | 12 | 21 | 43 | | Roger Federer | grass | 11 | 2 | 13 | 85 | | Roger Federer | hard | 50 | 11 | 61 | 82 | +----------------+---------+------+--------+-------+------------+
No surprises there at first glance: Federer's great on grass, and not so much on clay; Nadal's fantastic on clay but not so much on grass. What else does the data have to say?
- Is Federer really that bad on clay? Well, he's 2-10 against Nadal in clay-court finals, meaning he's 7-2 against other opponents. Not bad at all.
- Murray's production has been nearly exclusively on hard courts -- no clay-court finals, and just three between carpet and grass. Surprising considering how strong of an all-around player he is.
- The difference between Nadal's clay-court and hard-court prowess is astounding: 89% finals won vs just 44%. Nevertheless, he's still won 11 hard-court titles, many of them at big tournaments.
- Carpet-courts seem to have gone out of style. Only Federer, the oldest of the Big 4, has played more than one carpet final (and none recently).
Next up, we'll see how results differ based on event type. We'll start with the data:
+----------------+---------------+------+--------+-------+------------+ | player name | event type | wins | losses | total | percentage | +----------------+---------------+------+--------+-------+------------+ | Andy Murray | 250 | 11 | 5 | 16 | 69 | | Andy Murray | 500 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 75 | | Andy Murray | Grand Slam | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | | Andy Murray | Masters | 8 | 1 | 9 | 89 | | Novak Djokovic | 250 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 60 | | Novak Djokovic | 500 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 88 | | Novak Djokovic | Championships | 1 | 0 | 1 | 100 | | Novak Djokovic | Grand Slam | 5 | 2 | 7 | 71 | | Novak Djokovic | Masters | 10 | 7 | 17 | 59 | | Rafael Nadal | 250 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 63 | | Rafael Nadal | 500 | 11 | 2 | 13 | 85 | | Rafael Nadal | Championships | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | | Rafael Nadal | Grand Slam | 10 | 5 | 15 | 67 | | Rafael Nadal | Masters | 19 | 10 | 29 | 66 | | Rafael Nadal | Olympics | 1 | 0 | 1 | 100 | | Roger Federer | 250 | 20 | 6 | 26 | 77 | | Roger Federer | 500 | 12 | 4 | 16 | 75 | | Roger Federer | Championships | 6 | 1 | 7 | 86 | | Roger Federer | Grand Slam | 16 | 7 | 23 | 70 | | Roger Federer | Masters | 18 | 12 | 30 | 60 | +----------------+---------------+------+--------+-------+------------+
- Murray has been near-perfect in Masters finals. When will he figure out how to transfer that success to Grand Slam finals?
- Nadal is the only member of the Big 4 to have contested an Olympic final (2008).
- Federer set a record in 2011 by winning his sixth year-end championships title (6-1 record in that event). Nadal, however, has yet to win -- this is the largest remaining hole on his resume.
I'll throw in a couple of extra data tables as food for thought:
+------+-----------------------+ | year | Grand Slam titles won | +------+-----------------------+ | 2004 | 3 | | 2005 | 3 | | 2006 | 4 | | 2007 | 4 | | 2008 | 4 | | 2009 | 3 | | 2010 | 4 | | 2011 | 4 | | 2012 | 1 | +------+-----------------------+ +------+--------------------+ | year | Masters titles won | +------+--------------------+ | 2004 | 3 | | 2005 | 8 | | 2006 | 6 | | 2007 | 7 | | 2008 | 7 | | 2009 | 8 | | 2010 | 6 | | 2011 | 9 | +------+--------------------+
The utter dominance of the Big 4 at Masters and Grand Slam events (there are 9 Masters tournaments per year, and 4 Grand Slams -- as of this writing, only 1 has been played so far this year).
+----------------+------+ | player name | rank | +----------------+------+ | Andy Murray | 109 | | Novak Djokovic | 36 | | Rafael Nadal | 48 | | Roger Federer | 67 | +----------------+------+
Each player's ranking when he contested his first final.
Conclusion
With 5 big Masters tournaments coming up in the next 2 1/2 months, and two Grand Slams soon after, it will be interesting to see if the Big 4 can continue their domination. How long can they keep it up?
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